Recently
spread across traditional media and online news alleging that a strong
solar storm will hit Earth in 2013 and cause massive destruction. This
is not the first time that a similar spread news, but it was in the
past talking about a similar mass in 2012 (which connect the end of the
world and a ground collision with the planet "Nniburo" alleged). However,
this time we can trace the origin of this news, as it is stated in the
newspaper "Daily Mail" British, then had it translated and published
news sites and Arab news agencies.
We can say unequivocally that most of what the mention of speculation (not scientific predictions) and arrived fairly often exaggerated and intimidation, and sometimes fairly serious scientific inaccuracies. Some of these fallacies is - most likely - the result of an accurate translation. For example, there is no such thing as a "volcanic eruptions Solar" (there is no "volcanoes" on the sun!). There is also no evidence of a strong solar storm every hundred years.
From a scientific point of view, known specialists in solar physics that the sun passes in periods of activity and inactivity periodic, and that the average per session - from a peak of solar activity to the next peak - takes about 11 years. One of the manifestations of increased solar activity is to increase the number of spots observed on the surface of the sun (also known as solar Elv sunspots), which are areas of the sun's surface are relatively cooler than surrounding areas. When the sun reached its peak, the number of sunspots has peaked as well.
But it is not limited to sunspots. There are also so-called "solar wind" solar wind, which is flows of particles emerging from the surface of the sun (protons and electrons mainly). And these slow-moving solar wind and relatively low-intensity solar activity at perigee.
With increased solar activity increases the speed and intensity of these winds, just as increasing the frequency and severity of many other solar weather events, including solar flares solar flares and coronal mass emission coronal mass ejections. And is associated with all the increase in the intensity of the thermal radiation of the sun by up to about one per thousand, as well as the increase in the intensity of solar radiation short wavelength (UV bands and rays).
But what the impact of all this on the planet? It is known that the solar wind is moving in all directions. When the particles close to the wind (which is electrically charged) from Earth, the Earth's magnetic field Ihrvha toward the poles Amonatisien the northern and southern land, Vttfaal this air particles with atoms in the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere, the problem of what is known as polar twilight aurora.
As at the peak of solar activity and the exit outbreaks strong and quick as well as coronal mass emissions from the sun, solar need this article from 18 to 36 hours to reach Earth (If you encounter out these emissions towards the earth). And influenced by charged particles carried by the Earth's magnetic flares Atmospheric Vttgma eventually when the polar regions of the Earth's atmosphere. Had very powerful flares, the charged particles up to low latitudes (temperate zones of the earth), and this so-called storm Djiumgnatisah geomagnetic storm.
Preliminary studies indicate the presence of small effects of such activities on living organisms and human thanks to the protection provided by magnetic Alglafan and the Earth's atmosphere. The biggest danger shall be astronauts who are in orbit around the Earth.
The real risk for us (the residents of the land), lies in the negative effects of the storms Djiumgnatisah on technological systems. However, the storm may take upto two to four days depending on severity, the operations to repair the damage caused by these effects may need several weeks to several months (again depending on the severity of the storm and coverage to areas of the globe). Perhaps the most important of these effects:
1 - communication systems: It depends a lot of the communication systems and radio broadcasts on the reflection of radio waves from the ionosphere (the ionized layer) *. As the last class affected by the storm solar Bashdtha, the communication systems this has disturbed or it may amount to the complete cessation during solar storm.
And it may exceed wired to wireless communications, such as cables (wires) transfer of land-telephony. Historically - during the nineteenth century - disrupted telegraph systems in 1859 because strong Giomagnatisah storm hit the ground, which coincided with the peak of solar activity.
2 - satellite navigation systems: Global Positioning System, known as GPS. Because of changes in the earth's ionosphere during solar storm, the radio signals issued by the satellite GPS system has crossed the ionosphere suffer so-called flash scintillation, and thus less accurate positioning receivers on the ground.
3 - Satellites: affect storms Djiumgnatisah as well as the increase in the intensity of solar ultraviolet radiation on the Earth's atmosphere, through the heating air atmosphere and make it expands, which increases air resistance to movement satellites with orbits low, making it slow down to the point may drop gradually toward Earth and burn up in the atmosphere.
Something similar has happened to the orbiting space laboratory Skylab skylab during the storm Djiumgnatisah in 1979, he fell toward the ground. Also, during the storm Djiumgnatisah 1989, affected more than two thousand satellite, making the institutions responsible for a change in the orbits of these satellites to avoid damage.
The other danger to satellites, is the possibility of penetrating solar wind particles to the walls of satellites (especially small ones), which may destroy their electronic systems or may affect its computers and software.
4 - power generation systems, transmission: The changes in the geomagnetic during the storm Djiumgnatisah generate electric currents going in wires (cables) power transmission, especially those wires that cross long distances, which may cause damage to her as well as for generators and electrical transformers.
Something similar has happened in the Canadian province of Quebec and in the north-eastern United States during the storm Djiumgnatisah 1989, causing an interruption in power for six million people for several hours.
If you happen scenarios similar to the mentioned above during the height of solar activity in 2012 or 2013? It should be emphasized that we do not have the answer uncertain about this question - according to current scientific knowledge. There are many factors that should meet together to talk strong Giomagnatisah storm with devastating effect - must be the presence of other factors are still not aware of. This section of the space science called space weather space weather is a relatively new science (much of science weather meteorology traditional).
For comparison, we know that the possibility of thunderstorms and rainfall increases during the winter, but no one can advance to accurately predict the time and place of a thunderstorm and Bashdtha (we can not do it by 7 to 10 days maximum).
Well, all I can say is that the probability of a storm Giomagnatisah increase during the peak period of solar activity. But no one can accurately predict in advance and the possibility of such storms and their impact on the earth.
In the end, should not be underestimated Djiumgnatisah storms or reduce the severity if they occur, فحدوث a comprehensive Giomagnatisah storm destroy communications systems, satellites and electrical power generation systems and distribution - might take mankind back to the Stone Age - remains probable and improbable someday.
In terms of human and economic cost of not priceless (Imagine the contemporary world without electricity or communications. Without banking systems or hospitals. No shops or factories).
It is a scary scenario as close as possible to the science fiction, but it unfortunately can happen. So, some countries have started - especially the larger ones - to take the measures and procedures for the prevention of the negative effects of comprehensive a Giomagnatisah storm on the ground through the establishment of early warning systems.
And formed for this purpose special committees and held seminars and conferences. Where are the Arab countries from all this? When The governments Sttenbh these countries and decision makers of the importance of space science and astronomy? This science is not - has never been - a sort of "luxury scientific."
We can say unequivocally that most of what the mention of speculation (not scientific predictions) and arrived fairly often exaggerated and intimidation, and sometimes fairly serious scientific inaccuracies. Some of these fallacies is - most likely - the result of an accurate translation. For example, there is no such thing as a "volcanic eruptions Solar" (there is no "volcanoes" on the sun!). There is also no evidence of a strong solar storm every hundred years.
From a scientific point of view, known specialists in solar physics that the sun passes in periods of activity and inactivity periodic, and that the average per session - from a peak of solar activity to the next peak - takes about 11 years. One of the manifestations of increased solar activity is to increase the number of spots observed on the surface of the sun (also known as solar Elv sunspots), which are areas of the sun's surface are relatively cooler than surrounding areas. When the sun reached its peak, the number of sunspots has peaked as well.
But it is not limited to sunspots. There are also so-called "solar wind" solar wind, which is flows of particles emerging from the surface of the sun (protons and electrons mainly). And these slow-moving solar wind and relatively low-intensity solar activity at perigee.
With increased solar activity increases the speed and intensity of these winds, just as increasing the frequency and severity of many other solar weather events, including solar flares solar flares and coronal mass emission coronal mass ejections. And is associated with all the increase in the intensity of the thermal radiation of the sun by up to about one per thousand, as well as the increase in the intensity of solar radiation short wavelength (UV bands and rays).
But what the impact of all this on the planet? It is known that the solar wind is moving in all directions. When the particles close to the wind (which is electrically charged) from Earth, the Earth's magnetic field Ihrvha toward the poles Amonatisien the northern and southern land, Vttfaal this air particles with atoms in the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere, the problem of what is known as polar twilight aurora.
As at the peak of solar activity and the exit outbreaks strong and quick as well as coronal mass emissions from the sun, solar need this article from 18 to 36 hours to reach Earth (If you encounter out these emissions towards the earth). And influenced by charged particles carried by the Earth's magnetic flares Atmospheric Vttgma eventually when the polar regions of the Earth's atmosphere. Had very powerful flares, the charged particles up to low latitudes (temperate zones of the earth), and this so-called storm Djiumgnatisah geomagnetic storm.
Preliminary studies indicate the presence of small effects of such activities on living organisms and human thanks to the protection provided by magnetic Alglafan and the Earth's atmosphere. The biggest danger shall be astronauts who are in orbit around the Earth.
The real risk for us (the residents of the land), lies in the negative effects of the storms Djiumgnatisah on technological systems. However, the storm may take upto two to four days depending on severity, the operations to repair the damage caused by these effects may need several weeks to several months (again depending on the severity of the storm and coverage to areas of the globe). Perhaps the most important of these effects:
1 - communication systems: It depends a lot of the communication systems and radio broadcasts on the reflection of radio waves from the ionosphere (the ionized layer) *. As the last class affected by the storm solar Bashdtha, the communication systems this has disturbed or it may amount to the complete cessation during solar storm.
And it may exceed wired to wireless communications, such as cables (wires) transfer of land-telephony. Historically - during the nineteenth century - disrupted telegraph systems in 1859 because strong Giomagnatisah storm hit the ground, which coincided with the peak of solar activity.
2 - satellite navigation systems: Global Positioning System, known as GPS. Because of changes in the earth's ionosphere during solar storm, the radio signals issued by the satellite GPS system has crossed the ionosphere suffer so-called flash scintillation, and thus less accurate positioning receivers on the ground.
3 - Satellites: affect storms Djiumgnatisah as well as the increase in the intensity of solar ultraviolet radiation on the Earth's atmosphere, through the heating air atmosphere and make it expands, which increases air resistance to movement satellites with orbits low, making it slow down to the point may drop gradually toward Earth and burn up in the atmosphere.
Something similar has happened to the orbiting space laboratory Skylab skylab during the storm Djiumgnatisah in 1979, he fell toward the ground. Also, during the storm Djiumgnatisah 1989, affected more than two thousand satellite, making the institutions responsible for a change in the orbits of these satellites to avoid damage.
The other danger to satellites, is the possibility of penetrating solar wind particles to the walls of satellites (especially small ones), which may destroy their electronic systems or may affect its computers and software.
4 - power generation systems, transmission: The changes in the geomagnetic during the storm Djiumgnatisah generate electric currents going in wires (cables) power transmission, especially those wires that cross long distances, which may cause damage to her as well as for generators and electrical transformers.
Something similar has happened in the Canadian province of Quebec and in the north-eastern United States during the storm Djiumgnatisah 1989, causing an interruption in power for six million people for several hours.
If you happen scenarios similar to the mentioned above during the height of solar activity in 2012 or 2013? It should be emphasized that we do not have the answer uncertain about this question - according to current scientific knowledge. There are many factors that should meet together to talk strong Giomagnatisah storm with devastating effect - must be the presence of other factors are still not aware of. This section of the space science called space weather space weather is a relatively new science (much of science weather meteorology traditional).
For comparison, we know that the possibility of thunderstorms and rainfall increases during the winter, but no one can advance to accurately predict the time and place of a thunderstorm and Bashdtha (we can not do it by 7 to 10 days maximum).
Well, all I can say is that the probability of a storm Giomagnatisah increase during the peak period of solar activity. But no one can accurately predict in advance and the possibility of such storms and their impact on the earth.
In the end, should not be underestimated Djiumgnatisah storms or reduce the severity if they occur, فحدوث a comprehensive Giomagnatisah storm destroy communications systems, satellites and electrical power generation systems and distribution - might take mankind back to the Stone Age - remains probable and improbable someday.
In terms of human and economic cost of not priceless (Imagine the contemporary world without electricity or communications. Without banking systems or hospitals. No shops or factories).
It is a scary scenario as close as possible to the science fiction, but it unfortunately can happen. So, some countries have started - especially the larger ones - to take the measures and procedures for the prevention of the negative effects of comprehensive a Giomagnatisah storm on the ground through the establishment of early warning systems.
And formed for this purpose special committees and held seminars and conferences. Where are the Arab countries from all this? When The governments Sttenbh these countries and decision makers of the importance of space science and astronomy? This science is not - has never been - a sort of "luxury scientific."
0 comments:
Post a Comment